Forecasting models from Michigan Medicine clinicians show aggressive social distancing could reduce the number of COVID-19 patients at U-M hospitals in early May by as much as 65 percent at peak.
“This data confirms that everyone in Michigan can help us flatten the curve and it is crucial. This is not to be taken lightly,” said Vikas Parekh, M.D., associate chief clinical officer for Michigan Medicine’s adult hospitals and professor of internal medicine.
Parekh adds that through sustained and prolonged social distancing, Michigan residents can greatly reduce the portion of the population who become infected and significantly reduce these estimates for the number of patients who would require hospitalization.
“In a scenario where the virus spreads throughout the local population infecting the majority of the population, our model shows tremendous differences between less and more aggressive social distancing,” Parekh said.
“Our models show that in this worst-case scenario, with less social distancing, our peak census of patients in U-M hospitals could be as high as 5860 patients on May 4. With aggressive social distancing, the model shows about 2000 patients on that same date.”
The reduction of 65 percent is the difference in census in early May between the two models, Parekh said.
Read more about aggressive social distancing and how it could impact the number of COVID-19 patients at U-M hospitals in the Michigan Medicine Newsroom.